The case against swing-state fraud

(hijacking this page for 11/22/20 posts)

Here, I've predicted each state's 2020 POTUS vote by taking 2016's result, adding a small correction for each state's linearized red-shift or blue-shift drift over the previous 6 elections, & shifting up for Biden's 2020 US two-party vote share* vs. Clinton 2016. 
             (51.55% vs. 50.36%)
  This simplistic model ignores the state-specific relative appeal for Biden vs. Clinton, which should be small given their similar centrist views, and Trump's unchanged platform vs. 2016.


State-specific irregularities in swing states would appear as major departures from the y=x line.  Yes, GA went for Biden a bit more than expected, but reasonable given the massive "ditch Trump" campaign organized there.  MI, WI, AZ, and PA all fall within 1% of expectation.   The only state (within striking distance of flipping) that appears more than 2% off is Florida, with an unexpectedly high Trump win.

*weighted by each state's Electoral College votes

© 2020